9. Mix of housing

Initially, we set out the key findings of chapter 9. Note that referencing, data source and context is provided in the body of the chapter.   

Key findings

• In the owner-occupied sector the average size of accommodation rises with Household Reference Person (HRP) age to typically reach a peak around the age of 50; a similar pattern (but with smaller dwelling sizes) is seen in both the social and private rented sector.
• The projected future mix of housing needed within the owner-occupied sector is as follows: 6.5% 1 bedroom dwellings; 31.7% 2 bedroom dwellings; 41.6% 3 bedroom dwellings and 20.2% 4+ bedroom dwellings.
• The projected future mix of housing needed within the affordable rented sector is as follows: 40.1% 1 bedroom dwellings; 29.3% 2 bedroom dwellings; 27.5% 3 bedroom dwellings and 3.1% 4+ bedroom dwellings.

Background

This chapter draws on previous analysis to assess the appropriate mix of housing across the Torbay HMA. This chapter should be considered in tandem with chapter 3 to understand the housing profile of the HMA. 

As a snapshot of the housing profile expanded upon in chapter 3, tables 9.1 and 9.2 below set out the breakdown of housing stock by size of dwelling (assessed as number of bedrooms). Across the HMA the largest number of dwellings are 2 and 3 bedroomed properties. This varies significantly by tenure with larger housing predominating in the owner-occupied sector and with significantly higher proportions of one bedroom dwellings in the rented sector.    

Source: Census 2011

Source: Census 2011

In terms of assessing the appropriate mix of housing into the future, we can review the demographic projections to provide a good indication of how the population and household structure will develop. This is covered in depth in Chapter 4. Simply translating the growth in households into a projected profile of additional housing is not straightforward.

The reason is that, particularly in the private market sector, a household’s selection of a property is not always based upon their defined bedroom need, it is also based upon their aspirations as to the size of the property they can afford. For example, a couple without children may in fact buy a four bedroomed property if they can afford this for numerous reasons such as: they may plan a family in the future, or they may need extra bedrooms to use as a home office, as storage, or as rooms for friends to stay. Choice in the housing market is often determined by a household’s finances. A lower salaried couple without children may aspire to live in a four bedroomed property, but that is simply not possible given affordability ratios in Torbay. 

Constraints in the supply of certain property types can restrict movement within the market sector. For example, the lack of suitable downsizing options may restrict elderly households from releasing larger properties which they are under-occupying. 

There is less choice in the affordable/social rented sector where households are allocated properties in accordance with their defined bedroom need. However, many long-standing tenants are under-occupying as their children have left the family home and they have remained in the larger property originally allocated to them, which is their entitlement under their tenancy agreement. There is a financial penalty for working age households in receipt of housing benefits who under-occupy, known as the ‘under-occupation charge’ or ‘bedroom tax’, to discourage underoccupation within the sector. This does not apply to pensioner households.  

The methodology to assess housing type requirements

Having considered the element of choice, the methodological approach to estimate a profile of the type of housing needed is to first ascertain the number of household reference persons (HRPs) in defined age cohorts by tenure and the profile of housing type occupied (by bedroom size) within these cohorts. The data for this analysis has been provided by way of a commissioned table by ONS (Table CT0621) provided at local authority level based upon the Census 2011.

The next step is then to consider predicted household growth within each age cohort. The growth or decrease in each cohort is applied to the profile of current household occupation by housing type and by tenure to estimate the proportionate housing type requirements over the next ten years. We apply the 2018 based household projections to assess household growth as these are the latest projections of household growth by age of HRP.      

Source: ONS household projections 2018

The sections below show an estimate of how the average number of bedrooms varies by the age of HRP and by tenure for Torbay. 

The owner-occupied dwelling stock

In the owner-occupied sector the average size of accommodation rises with HRP age to typically reach a peak around the age of 50 for 4 bedroom dwellings and circa 60 years for 3 bedroom dwellings. A similar pattern (but with smaller dwelling sizes) is seen in both the social and private rented sector. After peaking, the average dwelling size decreases – as typically some households downsize as they get older.

Figure 9.1: Owner occupation total dwellings by age cohort

Source: ONS 2021

Figure 9.2: Owner occupation % dwelling size occupied by age cohort

Source: ONS 2019

Applying the household growth rates by age cohort of HRP to the current size of dwellings that are owner occupied, this provides a projected future mix of housing as shown below.   

The social/affordable rented housing stock

Figure 9.3: Social/affordable total dwellings by age cohort

Source: ONS 2019

Figure 9.4: Social/affordable % dwelling size occupied by age cohort

Source: ONS 2019

Applying the household growth rates by age cohort of HRP to the current size of dwellings that are rented as affordable or social rent, this provides an estimated future mix of housing as shown below.

Chapter 8