4. Demographic profile

Initially, we set out the key findings of chapter 4. Note that referencing and data sources are provided in the body of the chapter.   

Key findings

• The latest population estimate for Torbay is 136,218.
• Population numbers have been stable over the last estimated year, although the components of growth have seen a decrease in natural growth (the ratio of births to deaths) compensated by net in-migration.
• Over the last 20 years population growth in Torbay has been noticeably slower than comparator geographies.
• Population is projected to increase by approximately 14,000 people from 2019 to 2039.
• Population increases will be particularly acute in the older age cohorts (75 to 84, and 85 and over), while younger cohorts remain stable.
• Overall population growth over the next 20 years is expected to be driven by net internal migration.
• Migration statistics indicate that younger population cohorts (15 to 19, 20 to 24 and 25 to 29) migrate out from Torbay in net terms. This is particularly pronounced in the 15 to 19 age cohort.
• Conversely for all other age cohorts there is a net in-migration. This is highest in the 55 to 59, 60 to 64 and 65 to 69 age cohorts.
• Household growth is projected to outstrip population growth (2019 to 2039).
• Considering the age cohort of the household reference person (HRP), the highest percentage household growth is projected in cohorts where the HRP age is 75 to 84, and 85 and over.

This chapter examines the population and household profiles within the local authority area, as well as projected changes to both in future. Clearly household growth is a key driver of the need for increasing housing supply. However, the future housing needs of household groups will differ according to their age cohort and composition.

The current population

The mid-2020 population estimates were released in June 2021. The total population of Torbay was estimated at 136,218 people, of which 66,424 were male and 69,794 were female. Population change from the previous estimate (mid-2019) is set out in table 4.1 below. This is also broken down by age group. It is difficult to assess trends over one year and this section will cover population trends later.

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2021

Table 4.2 below considers the components of population change from mid-2019 to mid-2020 estimates. Torbay’s position is also compared with comparative geographies. Unlike comparative geographies, Torbay sees a fall in its population as a result of ‘natural change’, which refers to the difference between the birth rate and death rate. Conversely Torbay sees an increase of both net internal and ‘external’ migration, where ‘external’ refers to both international and cross-national (between UK nations) migration. Torbay is unique in respect of comparative geographies in that net internal in-migration exceeds net external in-migration. However, for Devon and Cornwall as a whole, it is not uncommon for domestic inward migration to be the main driver of population growth.  

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2021

The table and graph below illustrate population growth over the last 20 years in Torbay and respective geographies. Table 4.3 shows an estimated increase of 6,253 in Torbay’s population between 2001 to 2020. The graph (figure 4.1) illustrates that the rate of population growth in

Torbay is far lower than in comparative geographies. In fact, both Plymouth’s and Torbay’s respective population growth rates are lower than the national rate, while Exeter exceeds the national rate. This points to the comparative economic strength and consequent draw of the Exeter HMA.     

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2021

Figure 4.1: Population growth rates mid-2001 to mid-2020

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2021

Population projections

Table 4.4 below sets out the estimated population by age cohort across the years 2019, 2029 and 2039, and the percentage of the total population of each cohort over the respective years. The total population of Torbay is estimated to increase from 136,646 in 2019 to 150,701 by 2039. 

As an overall proportion of the population, all age cohorts below 65 years decrease (although not necessarily numerically) from 2019 to 2039. Conversely all age cohorts 65 and over increase as a proportion of the overall population from 2019 to 2039. 

The 75 to 84 and 85+ cohorts increase from 8.8% and 3.8% of the population in 2019 to 12.4% and 5.9% of the population respectively in 2039. This is also within the context of a growing population overall. These projections indicate a growing and ageing population in Torbay.

Source: ONS 2021 (Nomisweb)

The graph below shows the projected percentage growth by age cohort through 2019, 2029 and 2039. It can be seen that the 85+ cohort is projected to increase by over 70% by 2039, likewise the 74 to 84 cohort by 55%.

Figure 4.2: Population growth by age cohort

Source: ONS 2021 (Nomisweb)

Next, we consider the components of projected population growth as assessed by the 2018-based population projections (components of change). This analysis includes what is described as natural change. This is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths in the year. It also includes the components of migration, which are provided as the net of in- and out- migration. Components of migration include internal migration, which is migration from and to other parts of England; international migration, which is migration from and to other countries outside of the UK; and cross-border migration, which is migration from and to other nations within the United Kingdom. There is a further migration category referred to as ‘Other’ which accounts for other one-off migration events. The data provides for 7.2 persons in the ‘Other’ category in 2020, so we believe it is not a material consideration in assessing population trends.

We can see from the graph below that the main component of projected population growth is net in-migration. There is also projected net international in-migration, although this reduces and stabilises after 2023. The current resident population of Torbay is projected to reduce as the death rate exceeds the birth rate.

Figure 4.3: Components of population growth 

Source: ONS 2021 (Nomisweb)

Net internal migration is the most significant factor in relation to projected population change. What is equally important is the overall number of people projected to internally migrate into and out of Torbay. The table below illustrates the base data that informs the graph above. 13,216 people are projected to move in and out of Torbay to or from somewhere else in England. If those migrating out of Torbay are for example a different age cohort to those migrating in, then this has a far greater impact on the demographic of Torbay than the net figures would suggest. The same is true of differing socio-economic cohorts, family composition and so on.

Source: ONS 2021 (Nomisweb)      

The graph below examines internal migration (inflow and outflow) in a single year. The ONS estimates internal migration in and outflow by age cohort, gender and local authority area.  The estimates for 2019 are consistent by data source with the 2019 figures above (table 4.5). The estimates clearly show that the highest net outflow of population occurs in the 15 to 19 age group, with a net outflow of 343 persons. It likely that this age group is leaving Torbay to attend further education. Conversely, the highest net inflow of population is in the 55 to 59 age cohort, with high levels also in the 60 to 64 and 65 to 69 age cohorts. These age groups are either retired or nearing retirement. 

The overall impact of net internal migration is to shift the balance from a decreasing population to an increasing population, and the characteristics of age cohorts in-migrating also contributes to the overall ageing of Torbay’s population. 

Figure 4.4: Net internal migration in- and out- flow by year ending June 2019

Source: ONS 2021 (Nomisweb)  

Household growth

Populations form households so it is important to consider household growth projections when considering future housing needs. The household growth projections are a component of the Standard Method calculation. 

In the table below, we show the projected household growth for Torbay in terms of the following three projections:

• Household projections mid-1991 to mid-2039 based upon the 2014 based household projections.
• Household projections mid-2001 to mid-2041 based upon 2016 household projections.
• Household projections mid-2001 to mid-2043 based upon 2018 household projections.

The Standard Method calculation is based upon the 2014 based subnational population projections. These projections are a key component in calculating the housing requirement for the local authority. As the 2014 based projections were taken up to 2039, we have used the same timeline for the 2016 and 2018 based projections.

The projected rate of household growth is slower for the 2016 based projection than for the 2014 based projection. The 2018 based projection reverses the slower rate of growth of the 2016 based projection and in fact projects a higher rate of growth than the 2014 based projection. 

Source: ONS (Nomisweb)

Household growth compared to population growth

The figure below compares projected household growth against projected population growth. Household growth is projected to increase at a higher rate than population growth. It is household growth that determines the required increase in the supply of housing. The reasons why household growth often outstrips population growth include the increasing trend in single person households, people living longer and net in-migration of single households.

Figure 4.5: Household v population growth (%)

Source: ONS 2018 based household projections (Nomisweb)

The table below considers projected household growth by age cohort of Household Reference Person (HRP), with HRP being the nominated adult in the household. The table provides projections from 2018 to 2043. The pattern that emerges with respect to projected household growth across the age cohorts is broadly consistent with that which is shown for projected population growth in figure 4.1, with household growth rates being fastest in the older cohorts much like in figure 4.2. However, the faster growth rate in the older cohorts is noticeably more pronounced when looking at projected household growth than when looking at projected population growth.

Source: ONS 2018 based household projections (Nomisweb)

Household composition

Household composition is a fundamental factor driving the size of housing needed in any local authority area in the future. In the table below, we can see that 34.2% of Torbay’s households are single person households which is slightly higher than comparative proportions for Exeter and Plymouth. The proportion of single households that are 65 or over in Torbay is 16.4% which is 3+ percentage points higher than in Exeter and Plymouth. 

The percentage of one family households that are all 65 and over is 10.8% in Torbay which is noticeably higher than the neighbouring urban areas. In fact, the total percentage of age 65 and over households in Torbay at 27.8% is significantly higher than the corresponding percentage figures for Exeter and Plymouth.

Families with dependent and non-dependent children are a minority in all comparator areas. Torbay does not have a student population of any note, unlike its neighbours.  

Source: Census 2011

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